A near-certain, record-warm Pacific event sets the tone for Canada's coming winter, and here is what forecasters are saying it could mean at home.
The latest El Niño forecast from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the warm Pacific event now underway will grow stronger, reach its peak in December and almost certainly persist until February 2027. In its monthly climate bulletin, released October 8, 2026, the United Nations weather agency also signalled that ocean surface temperatures could climb to record levels.
For Canadians, the timing matters. The event is expected to be at full strength through the heart of the coming winter, and Canadian forecasters are already pointing to a milder-than-usual start to the season across much of the country.
What the WMO Bulletin Says About a December Peak
The WMO’s bulletin lays out three headline findings. Together they describe an event that is not fading but building as the Northern Hemisphere heads into its coldest months.
- Intensification: This year’s El Niño is expected to strengthen further over the coming weeks.
- Timing of the peak: The agency expects the event to reach maximum strength in December.
- Duration: The probability that El Niño conditions continue through February 2027 is put at close to 100 per cent.
- Ocean heat: Sea surface temperatures are expected to reach record highs.
Seasonal outlooks are usually expressed in ranges and odds, so a probability approaching certainty is unusual language from a global forecasting body. It suggests the agency sees little chance of the event weakening before late winter.
Why Near-Certainty Through February 2027 Stands Out
General context: El Niño is the warm phase of a natural cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean. When surface waters along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific warm well above normal, they shift where storms form and how the jet stream flows, which can reshape weather patterns thousands of kilometres away.
These events typically develop over months and often reach their strongest point near the end of the calendar year, which is consistent with the December peak the WMO now projects. What makes this bulletin notable is the combination of strength, a near-certain run into 2027 and the prospect of record ocean warmth, rather than any single element on its own.
Because the warmth is expected to persist for the entire winter rather than fade early, its influence on North American weather has more time to show up in day-to-day conditions.
Record Sea Surface Temperatures and the Global Ripple
The expectation of record sea surface temperatures is the detail likely to draw the most attention from climate scientists. Warmer oceans release more heat and moisture into the atmosphere, which can amplify the usual El Niño pattern of drought in some regions and heavy rain in others.
Effects are already being reported well beyond Canada. Argentina briefly closed Iguazu Falls to tourists, a move linked to El Niño conditions, offering an early example of how the event can disrupt travel, tourism and local economies far from the Pacific.
General context: Strong El Niño years have historically been associated with shifts in global crop yields, commodity prices and insurance losses. For readers following markets and trade, those international effects can eventually filter back into prices and supply chains in Canada.
David Phillips on a ‘Historic’ El Niño Across Canada
Environment and Climate Change Canada senior climatologist David Phillips has described this year’s event as historic, and has outlined how he expects it to shape both the fall and winter months across the country.
His characterisation fits the WMO’s outlook of a strengthening, long-lasting event with record ocean heat. Phillips has long been one of the country’s most recognised voices on seasonal weather, and his framing signals that Canadian forecasters view this El Niño as more than a routine seasonal factor.
Brand Magazine has tracked how this event is expected to delay the arrival of cold weather in our earlier look at the Canada fall forecast as an exceptional El Niño holds winter at bay.
How the El Niño Forecast Lines Up With Canada’s Winter Outlooks
Other Canadian seasonal forecasts point in the same direction as the WMO: a milder start to winter across much of the country. That consensus between international and domestic outlooks gives the projection added weight.
General context: In past strong El Niño winters, the clearest warm signal in Canada has tended to appear in British Columbia, the Prairies and parts of central Canada, often with less snow than normal in western regions. Atlantic Canada’s response has historically been more mixed, influenced by coastal storm tracks.
For a deeper dive into what record ocean warmth could mean for December and January, see our report on how a record El Niño puts a warmest-ever start to winter in play.
What a Milder Start Could Mean for Households and Business
A gentler beginning to winter would touch many parts of daily life and the economy. The following points are general context based on how warm winters have typically played out, not forecasts from the WMO bulletin.
- Home heating: Fewer extreme cold days can ease heating demand, although energy prices and rate changes may matter more to the final bill than temperatures alone.
- Ski and winter tourism: Resorts that depend on natural snowfall, particularly in the West, may face a slower start and greater reliance on snowmaking.
- Retail and seasonal goods: Sales of winter clothing, tires and snow-clearing equipment can be sensitive to how quickly cold and snow arrive.
- Municipal budgets: Cities may spend less on early-season snow removal, though freeze-thaw cycles can raise road-repair costs.
- Agriculture and water supply: Below-normal snowpack can affect spring runoff, soil moisture and reservoir levels heading into 2027.
For business owners and planners, the practical takeaway is to treat the outlook as a shift in probabilities that can inform inventory, staffing and budgeting decisions rather than as a guarantee.
Why a ‘Historic’ El Niño Still Won’t Rule Out Cold Snaps
A strong El Niño tilts the odds toward warmth, but it does not switch off Canadian winter. Wintry weather has already made an early appearance in Saskatchewan this fall, a reminder that short bursts of cold and snow can arrive regardless of the broader pattern.
General context: Seasonal forecasts describe average conditions over weeks or months. Individual storms, Arctic air outbreaks and local effects can still produce harsh stretches, even in a winter that ends up warmer than normal overall.
Canadians should continue to watch short-range forecasts and local weather warnings, particularly for travel, as the season progresses. The WMO is expected to keep updating its outlook through its regular monthly bulletins as the event approaches its projected December peak.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is El Niño expected to be strongest?
The WMO expects this year’s event to peak in December 2026.
How long will El Niño conditions last?
The agency puts the chance of conditions continuing until February 2027 at close to 100 per cent.
Does this mean Canada will have a warm winter?
Canadian forecasts expect a milder start to winter across much of the country, but cold snaps and snowstorms remain possible.
Why are record ocean temperatures significant?
Record sea surface warmth can strengthen El Niño’s influence on global weather, including rainfall, drought and temperature patterns.
